My guess is that they keep two lists, one real with small number, and one fake one with large number for PR purpose. They will draw from the real list if there is any opening.
Your chance depend on whether they over-estimate the yield. If there is an opening, they will find someone from the real list that meets certain profile they want.
Last year, Penn was fully enrolled. The total acceptance exceeded what they want. They did pick some from WL. My guess is that some school over-enrolled, and some under.
Hate to say, but if you are on the WL, do not pin much hope on it. Try to love the school that accept you and love you. If you get off the WL, consider yourself very lucky and just win a lottery (not literally). !
I posted this in the regular UPenn discussion, but my question applies more to this discussion thread: Would the Admissions Office be willing to say what our applications lack if we call? I got waitlisted and would like to know what to write about in my application update.
@USUG21 In addition to UPenn, my son applied EA to Georgia Tech (accepted), UVA (accepted) and Princeton (deferred then rejected). RD to Univ of Alabama (accepted) and Virginia Tech (accepted). He’s not interested in Alabama even though they gave him a full tuition scholarship. He only applied there to make my husband happy.
We live in Virginia, so he’s deciding between UVA & Virginia Tech since they are in-state tuition.
Where are you getting 60% from? Last year’s yield was closer to 69%, which would mean expected enrollment is 2552, which would kill any chance for them accepting from the waitlist.