Vassar or William and Mary, what are my chances

Quick context, I moved Junior year, so, well I have MANY ECs I could physically only do most of them for two years and I didn’t have much leadership position in any of them because of this. I’m pretty much just gonna jump into stats cause I feel like that’s the most important bit?

GPA: 3.8 cumulative unweighted (keep in mind, this includes some middle school grades because my school is weird) and a 4.3 cumulative. Maybe a side note, but my freshman year GPA is really what’s bringing me down, I got a 4.0 (uw) Junior

I’m all AP/IB/DE classes this year, almost all AP/IB last year, only one AP sophomore year (although my school had relatively few offered for us) and none my freshman year.

SAT/ACT: Idk if I’ll be able to take them this year, but I should realistically get a 1480 on the SAT

Essays/reccs: I’ve gotten my common app done and reviewed by some teachers and one of my friends, they have all REALLY liked it. Neither of my letters of recc are particularly special, seeing as I don’t know any of my teachers super well (although I think I did form a decent connection with both of them). I think a solid 8/10

Guitar/Bass: Acoustic guitar for 7 years, I went to a music camp for it freshman year as well. Bass for about a year. (I plan to submit a supplemental of guitar)

Vocal lessons/choir: Both of these stopped when I switched schools, but I had been taking vocal lessons for eight years by the time we moved. I also had been in school honors choirs for 5ish years. Planning on submitting vocal supplemental

Community theater: Did this for seven years, but I was in over 10 productions. I never really had anything beyond supporting roles though. Our productions were nominated for a lot of awards too. (I do intend to participate in my hs theater, couldn’t junior year because of the ensuing pandemic, but I hope to participate this year and in college)

Debate/mock trial: I did mock trial two years at my old school (I got best witness) debate for two years (I got best novice, and have helped with mentoring a few new students)

Fencing: Did this for four years in total (middle school and freshman year, stopped sophomore year). I couldn’t do it sophomore year because we were super focused on moving, but I REALLY want to pick it back up in college. (There are very few fencing clubs near where I live now, and honestly it’s too expensive to join one).

Volunteer: Ngl, I just started doing this this year over the summer, but it is so much fun! Everyone should volunteer for the Smithsonian transcription thing, especially if you like history!

Film clubs/classes: I took a film class at my old school during my sophomore year (I may pursue film as a major). At my new school I’m in (what is essentially) a film analysis club.

Writing: Really, only a year. I’m in yearbook this year and I research/write articles for a climate change blog (it’s a relatively small project though). This is super super fun to, cause I adore research. (each of these are probably about an hour and a half of weekly commitment, combined)

Commitment: These clubs/activities range from super committed to just whenever I feel like (the volunteer stuff is all whenever I feel like, usually about 2 hours a week), my biggest commitment probably was theater with 8-12hrs a week (lasted about 7 months). Currently, it’s a tie between guitar/voice (2-3 hrs a week) and the self-regulated volunteer stuff. Also, i have no real leadership in any of these, which I’m sure is a hindrance. Just want to let y’all know, I’m pretty sure I am unlikely to have a great, good, or okay shot at either of these schools, but I love them so much and enjoyed both their atmospheres so much that it would feel like a waste if I didn’t try for both. Just let me know which I have LESS of a chance at, so I know where to apply ED to.