What are my chances at the University of Michigan out of state?

The University of Michigan is my top choice right now. I’m worried because my GPA is low, mostly due to my very poor freshman year. I never got Cs, but many Bs, I just had trouble adjusting to HS. My sophomore & junior year were a lot better, I really picked it up and I’ve had a very tough course load. I’ve never gotten a B in an AP class. I attend a large, academically strong public HS. Here were my transcripts for my last 6 semesters:

Fresh Year S1:

Math 2 - B
History - A
English 1 Honors - B
Biology Honors - B
Spanish 1 - B

Fresh Year S2:

Math 2 - A
History - A
English 1 Honors - B
Biology Honors - A
Spanish 1 - B

Soph Year S1 (i bumped to honors math):

Math 3 Honors - B
AP US History - A
English 2 Honors - A
Chemistry Honors - A
Spanish 2 - A

Soph Year S2:

Math 3 Honors - B
AP US History - A
English 2 Honors - A
Chemistry Honors - A
Spanish 2 - A

Junior year S1:

Precalculus Honors - B
AP Gov- A
AP Lang - A
AP Chemistry - A
Physics Honors - A
Spanish 3 HONORS - A

Junior year S2:

Precalculus Honors - A
AP Psych - A
AP Lang - A
AP Chemistry - A
Physics Honors - A
Spanish 3 HONORS - A

My strongest semester was obviously my last, with the hardest course-load and highest grades. I struggled with math most, but I stuck with the honors track. While I started off on a bad foot, I’m hoping my upward trend and ending on a good note will help me.

Standardized test scores:

ACT: 32
Math: 30
Reading: 29
English: 33
Science: 35

SAT: 1440
Reading: 660
Math: 780

I’m planning to apply early, to LSA, with chemistry as my intended major. I am the Vice President of my schools Research Club, and my research group (me and 2 others) are taking our research to Argonne National Laboratory this school year. We are researching lime peels’ ability to remove Lead (II) ions from solution. I’m also in NHS, peer tutor, and I am in 2 school leadership programs, one is for freshmen orientation and helping them adjust to high school (we have a whole event and everything). I also worked last summer and this summer, and still work on my weekends during the school year right now. I am doing this among my senior year course-load which is:

AP Lit
AP Calculus BC
AP Biology
AP Physics C: Mechanics
AP Spanish Lang

I’ve already stated working on my Michigan essays and have put a lot of time into them. I think my teacher recs will be pretty strong, as I’m having teachers I am close with write them. I know nobody has the ability to know if I’ll get in or not, but I’m just wondering if I have a realistic shot. Thank you and good luck to everyone this fall!

The two most important criteria per the UMich CDS are GPA and course rigor. Your course rigor looks good. The average uw GPA for the Class of 2023 was 3.9 and the OOS acceptance rate was 19% (Class of 2022). ACT range for the Class of 2023 was 32-35.

Looks pretty solid…