What are my chances of getting into The University of Michigan?

Michigan Recalculated GPA: 3.4
Race: Asian(Indian Subcontinent)
ACT: 32
Math:34
APs: 5 and all 5s on exams
Alumni Relation: yes

Freshman Year GPA: 3.0
Sophomore Year GPA: 3.2
Junior Year GPA: 3.8

Note: I go to one of the toughest STEM schools in the nation and I really struggled with Math and Science my first two years, but really picked it up my junior year and got 6 As and one B in the hardest classes I’ve ever taken at my school. I’m also applying to LSA for economics and the Ross BBA program and I believe I have pretty solid EC activities.

I have a couple questions:
Does my upward trend mean anything?
Can my Essays make a significant impact?

ECs:
Microfinancing Internship with Indian Government for two years
Organized an Environmentally Friendly Startup competition for Local Middle Schools
Helped organize STEM camps for low-income families in my community
President of My school’s FBLA chapter
President of My school’s Business in Science Chapter
Junior Varsity Debate
Played Basketball my Freshman Year

I don’t think you can get in.

The upward trend helps and the essays can certainly have a significant impact.

Michigan is a reach to be sure, but you are in-state, you have taken challenging classes and done well in the AP tests, your 11th grade GPA is good and your ACT is solid, Try to aim for a 3.8+ GPA for the first half of your senior year.

I’m not in state

I’m not in state I’m from Northern Virginia

Chances are not great in my opinion.