What Chance do I have of getting into UC Irvine, San Diego, Davis, and Santa cruz

I am currently a senior in high school
GPA: weighted: 4.2
unweighted: 3.57
ACT: 31
Sat Subject Test Math Level 2: 800
Major: Data Science for Irvine and San Diego, Cognitive Science for Davis, and Computer Science for Santa cruz

Do I have a chance of getting into these schools??

Please calculate your UC GPA and post your UW UC GPA, Capped weighted and Fully weighted UC GPA:

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Other schools on your list? HS course rigor? EC’s?

fully weighted: 4.22, weighted and capped: 3.87, and Unweighted: 3.52
I’m thinking about applying to SCU, Purdue, Cal Poly, SJSU, UIUC, Arizona State, and Boston University
I had 16 semesters of honors/AP classes throughout grades 10-12
I have 202 hours of volunteer service, officer for 3 clubs, and played a sport for 2 years in school

You have good HS course rigor but with the UC’s, your Capped weighted UC GPA will make the UCD/UCI and UCSD a tough admit since UC’s tend to be very GPA focused. Average UC GPA capped weighted for all these UC’s was a 4.0+ for 2018 admissions.

Data Science is a capped (impacted) major at UCSD, so make sure you select an alternate major as a 2nd choice.

UCI and UCD are probably High Match/Low reach schools and UCSD would be a Low Reach.

Your ACT is within range for all the UC’s on your list but if are able to bump it up to a 32+, it will make you more competitive.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 (capped weighted) and not major specific:

UCB: 12.6%
UCLA: 11.7%
UCSD: 38.7%
UCSB: 53.6%
UCD: 56.5%
UCI: 52.1%
UCSC: 75.7%
UCR: 90.1%
UCM: 96.1%

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT:
UCB: 30-35
UCLA: 31-35
UCSD: 28-34
UCSB: 28-34
UCD: 26-33
UCI: 26-33
UCSC: 26-32
UCR: 22-30
UCM: 19-26

I would put UCSC as a Match school if you were not applying as a CS major since UCSC does not admit by major but I think it will be a High Match (50:50) if you apply for CS.
Important Note for Prospective Engineering Students/CS: Choice of major does not influence the selection of first-year students, except for those applicants interested in a major offered by the Jack Baskin School of Engineering (BSOE). Freshmen who are interested in a BSOE program should be sure to indicate a BSOE proposed major. Students who do not indicate a BSOE program or who apply as undeclared might not be able to pursue a BSOE program.

I would look at UCR if you are interested in CS as a solid Match school.

Which Cal Poly’s and which intended major? For SJSU? Are any of these CSU’s local?

Assuming my ACT improves 32+, what chance would I have of getting accepted into UCI and UCD?

The intended major for SJSU is CS, and for Cal Poly Slo the major would be Statistics, and yes the CSU’s are all local.

Your Capped weighted GPA is still an issue so I would still give you 50/50 odds at UCI and slightly higher odds for UCD. Although UC’s are very GPA focused, your whole application with test scores, EC’s and personal insight essays will all contribute to your chances.

You can only be local for one of the CSU’s. If you are local for SJSU, you get priority by since CS is impacted, then local preference does not help. SLO does not give local preference.

https://www2.calstate.edu/apply/freshman/documents/csulocaladmission-serviceareas.pdf

For SJSU, they admit by eligibility index and major. Last year the EI threshold for CS was 4725 SAT. If you convert your ACT composite to an SAT score then it is around 1430. Your EI is as follows: (3.87 x800)+(1430)= 4526 so it will be a Reach if the EI is close to the same threshold for this year’s admission. I suggest you consider applying for Software Engineering with an EI threshold of 4200.

For SLO, they use 9-11th grades so if you add your 9th grades into the Rogerhub calculator and calculate your capped weighted GPA, then you have your SLO GPA.

You want a target SLO GPA of 4.1 to be competitive. Your 31 ACT score is on target.

I think your only safety on the list is ASU so you might want to add another CSU such as SDSU or Cal Poly Pomona to your list.

Best of luck.