Will my Senior Grades take a big toll on my admissions chances this year? (1st sem)

I have always been told that Senior year grades generally do not matter. However, as I got older, I was informed that they send 1st-semester grades to determine admissions or whatnot. This year, I am a senior in high school and I am applying to mainly CSUs and UCs. From what I have heard, they only take 10th-11th grades into consideration. The problem is, from 10th-11th grade, my GPA on a 4 point scale was 3.8 (weighted and unweighted) but right now as a senior I have a 3.17. I still have 3 more months until the semester is over so hopefully I can pull my grades back up but will this really affect me heavily?? Distance Learning was really hard for me so my grades were falling (I have all B’s) because it was hard for me to focus. I hope to pull It back up to a 3.6+ (i think I could) but they always want to see improvement. The thing is, my sister had a 2.7 from 10th-11th grade but finally got a 3.5 her first semester of senior year and she still got rejected from all of the CSUs she applied for. Im not saying that an improvement won’t matter to me but I am worried that all my hard work will turn into nothing.

Thanks

In General, the CSU’s and UC’s do not ask for a Mid-year Senior transcript for admission purposes and will only use the self-reported grades from 10-11th for GPA and 9-11th for a-g course fulfillment, but they can request them if they think you are a borderline applicant and wish to see how you are doing Senior year towards completing the a-g course requirements.

That said, all CSU and UC acceptances are provisional meaning you need to maintain good Senior year grades. For the CSU’s, usually that means passing all Senior classes with a C or higher, no D’s or F’s and no major drop in GPA.

For the majority of UC’s, it means a 3.0 weighted GPA, no D’s or F’s for Senior year. For UCLA and UCB, 3.0 unweighted GPA, no D’s or F’s and no more than 2 C’s Senior year.

Not meeting the provisional admission criteria could result in your acceptances being rescinded so continue to do your best and no slacking.

not your question but with a 3.8, you aren’t competitive for most of the UCs - except UCM. UCR is probably coin toss. SDSU, CPSLO and CSULB are probably also reaches, Most majors at the rest of the CSUs should be viable. Apply broadly and good luck.