Chance Me: HYPS (reaches); Columbia, Chicago (high match)

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

<p>Please chance me on admission to HYPS (always a crapshoot), and Columbia, U Chicago. (My safety schools are Berkeley and UCLA.)</p>

<p>Attend a large, competitive school in San Diego. No. 2-ranked public school in region.</p>

<p>SAT
Math: 710
CR: 740
Writing: 780
Total: 2230</p>

<p>SAT IIs
(Taking Math 2, US History, Literature next week.)</p>

<p>GPA: 3.87
(I received 3 Bs and was snakebitten. Missed a couple of garden-variety homework assignments in classes. Received 89.9% in two classes and 89.8% in the other. Grrrr.)</p>

<p>APs
US History, 5
English Lit, 5
Biology, 5
World History, 4</p>

<p>College Courses
(My school has an arrangement with a nearby community college in which professors teach college courses on the h.s. campus. Students receive college credit. i was very accelerated in math and ran out of math classes to take, so I enrolled in college calculus my soph. year. Sadly, I was told all the college classes were offered credit/no credit, so I only worried about passing the courses and never killed myself (or even worried) when it came to grades. My h.s. transcripts always listed the courses as CR, so I never sweated it. About 3 weeks ago while pulling my college apps together, my h.s. told me to get my transcript from the college. Turns out the h.s. gives you CR/NC; the college gives you grades. Sheesh. I should've known, but I didn't.)</p>

<p>Calculus (soph.): C, B
Linear Algebra (jr.): B, B
Biology Lab (jr.): A
Political Science (sr.): on track for A, fall semester</p>

<p>Summer Internships/Jobs</p>

<p>Scientific Research Intern (paid), Neurobiology Lab, The Salk Institute, La Jolla, CA (2012)
(Mapped neuroelectric pulses and brain activity in starlings (birds). Conducted statistical analysis of how starlings respond to birdsongs. Overarching goal is to map how birds think. Ultimate goal is to design computers than are able to think like humans. (I know, crazy *****.) Worked with Ph.D.s and world-class researchers. Wrote research paper and presented findings to audience of over 100 scientists.</p>

<p>Scientific Research Intern (unpaid), UCSD Supercomputer Center, La Jolla, CA (2011)
(Worked on research team developing a smart energy grid for UCSD campus. Did some computer coding, as well as a great deal of statistical analysis on data to make micro grid highly efficient. Wrote research paper and presented findings to team of computer scientists.)</p>

<p>Summer Intern (paid), CardioScience, San Diego, CA (2011)
(Performed variety of duties for healthcare technology company that develops software for use during cardiac surgery. Performed Q/A of software. Also, assisted marketing manager with developing sales and marketing databases targeting leading cardiology centers throughout the U.S.)</p>

<p>ECs</p>

<ul>
<li>Model UN (Secretary, numerous awards and competitions.)</li>
<li>Academic League (Key member of one of the top-performing teams in San Diego County.)</li>
<li>Mock Trial (Key member of top-performing team in S.D. County.)</li>
<li>Accomplished guitar player (have played diligently since I was 7.)</li>
<li>Competitive rock climber (belong to a rock-climbing gym and compete regularly.)</li>
<li>Write a well-read contemporary music blog.</li>
<li>Lots of other stuff, but you get the idea.</li>
</ul>

<p>I feel good about my overall application, especially my summer jobs. However, I'm pretty bummed about my SAT score of 2230. I was shooting for a 2300+, but the math seems to be holding me back. I'm thinking it might be because I took Pre-Calc my freshman year and then jumped right into college calc. I haven't had an algebra class since the 8th grade. I'm thinking of retaking the SAT in Dec., but might also take the ACT.</p>

<p>At any rate, that's my story, and I'm sticking to it (or at least stuck with it, whatever the case may be.)</p>

<p>Please chance me. Thx.</p>

2

<p>Chicago is not a high match. It is a reach. I’m not saying that you are bad, it is just simply a reach for you.</p>

<p>Your SAT is fine, a higher score won’t help you. They are now going to be caring about your grades, ECs.</p>

3

<p>I don’t see anything in your resume that makes Columbia and Chicago as your match schools.</p>

<p>Am I missing something?</p>

<p>UCB and UCLA are not your safety schools.</p>

4

<p>Those are definitely not matches for you.</p>

5

<p>My profile is perhaps comparable to yours, except higher SAT. </p>

<p>And I KNOW Cal and UCLA are not matches for me. UChicago/Columbia are most definitely reaches for you.</p>

<p>Sorry, but you should rethink your chances.</p>

6

<p>I don’t think I have a lot to add to the general sentiment here. Perhaps you might be overestimating yourself a bit?</p>

7

<p>Sorry, guys. But I don’t get it.</p>

<p>From my perspective, any single application to a HYPS institution is a reach – even for 4.0/2400 applicants. It’s a statistical crapshoot, unless you can throw a football 80 yards, bend a soccer ball into the net from 30 yards out or fire a 69 on the Torrey Pines South Course.</p>

<p>I’m not coming in here thinking the Ivy admission sentries are going to line my path with rose petals. On the contrary. I’m coming in here thinking that I’m just another data point in the upper right quadrant from which the Ivies choose. </p>

<p>Looking at it from a statistical point of view, I have an AI of around 225. My 3.87 GPA isn’t perhaps stellar, but I’ve taken the most demanding classes possible at the No. 2-ranked school in San Diego County. (And even though we’re public, we bash all the local private schools in virtually every academic competition or metric.) I’ve gotten all 5’s and one 4 on my APs. Furthermore, I’ve been taking college courses since my sophomore year. And my ECs are stellar. I worked at the Salk Institute and the Supercomputer Center. (Had lunch at the cafeteria a few times with a Nobel Laureate.) My 2230/3.87 combo shows that I’m in the 55th percentile of accepted students at UChi and 48th percentile at Columbia. Those are clearly reaches/coin-flips. My AI is an 8 out of 9 for Ivies and puts me in about the 30th percentile of admits to HYPS. According to the stats, I have about a 15% to 20% chance of getting into any single top-tier Ivy. </p>

<p>I’m not trying to be a smart-***, but I just think it’s a matter of perspective. My goal isn’t to get into any single school. My goal is to get into a tier-grouping of schools.</p>

<p>My first-tier goal is HYPS. I’ll assign myself a 1/7 chance of getting into any one of those schools. Definitely a roll of the dice (which is literally a 1/6 chance). My 14% chance of getting in is only slightly better than the garden-variety applicant, who has roughly a 10% chance. But through the magic of statistics, I can turn the tables slightly in my favor. I can group all the events together so that I have a union of events. By doing this, I’ve created a series of mutually exclusive probabilities – four series of events, each with a roughly 1/7 chance. Therefore, my overall chance of getting into this tier is better than a coin flip. In fact, it’s 1/7+1/7+1/7+1/7=4/7, or 57%. Not great. I wouldn’t stake my life on it. But it’s certainly not as grim as everyone seems to think.</p>

<p>For my second-tier schools, say, Columbia, U Chi, Penn, Northwestern, I’ll run through the same process. Statistically, my odds are about 1/3 of getting into any single schools. But for the doom-and-gloomers’ sakes, I’ll assign myself a 1/4 chance. Ergo, 1/4+1/4+1/4+1/4=1, or 100%. It’s almost a statistical impossibility not to get an admit ticket to at least one of these schools.</p>

<p>Finally, for my safety schools – Cal, UCLA, UCSB and UCSD – my chances are about 3/4 for any single school. Without boring everyone with the math, it would be really, really hard to whiff on all four in succession.</p>

<p>The major risk to this model is the small sample sizes. There are only so many top-tier schools and second-tier schools. A small random event – a major state budget cut, a plunge in an endowment, or a cheating scandal that knocks out 50 athletes, requiring the school to go out and fill their new class with an extra 50 jocks – could dramatically skew the events.</p>

<p>But for everyone to say my safety school should be UC Merced or Chico St., that’s silly.</p>

8

<p>“For my second-tier schools, say, Columbia, U Chi, Penn, Northwestern, I’ll run through the same process. Statistically, my odds are about 1/3 of getting into any single schools. But for the doom-and-gloomers’ sakes, I’ll assign myself a 1/4 chance. Ergo, 1/4+1/4+1/4+1/4=1, or 100%. It’s almost a statistical impossibility not to get an admit ticket to at least one of these schools.”</p>

<p>You do not even know the first thing about probability for independent events, and you claim that you have done published research at Salk and UCSD. </p>

<p>I am speechless, and feel sorry for my Salk/UCSD colleagues who might have taken your findings seriously.</p>

9

<p>Complete brain cramp. You’re right. I should go to Chico St., just on principle.</p>

<p>Having said that, my point is still valid. Calculating for independent events, the numbers look like this:</p>

<p>Tier 1 Ivies:
Chances of not getting in: 6/7<em>6/7</em>6/7*6/7=54%
Chances of getting in are 46%. Not great, but it’s a coin flip, at least.</p>

<p>Tier 2 Ivies/Privates:
Chances of not getting in: 3/4<em>3/4</em>3/4*3/4=32%
Chances of getting in: 68%. Very good odds.</p>

<p>Safety Schools:
Chances of not getting in: 1/4<em>1/4</em>1/4*1/4=0.4%
Chances of getting in: 96.6%. Almost a certainty.</p>

<p>But the news gets even better when you start combining tiers.
The odds of a person like me not getting into my Tier1 and Tier2 groupings are 17%.
That makes the odds of getting into at least one school in the top two tiers 83%. Certainly not daunting.
And the odds of getting into at least one school among all three tiers are 99.99%. </p>

<p>My massive brain fart in my previous post not withstanding, the problem I have with the way most people look at college admissions is that they tend to view everything through a single keyhole. There’s way too much fear-based anecdotal evidence being tossed around. “I knew a guy who scored 2400 and had a 4.0 and Harvard never even gave him a sniff, ergo, how does a person like me – with a 2300/3.9 – even have a chance?” Here’s why. The 2400/4.0 guy might not have gotten a sniff from Harvard (probably a 50/50 shot), but had he applied to HYPSM across the board, he’d have had a 97% chance of getting into at least one of the schools.</p>

<p>No?</p>

<p>And again, apologies for the errors in the previous post. I have brought great shame to myself and the Salk Institute. Please forgive me. Or not.</p>

10

<p>You will find your answer in late April and early May.</p>

<p>Then, you will know!</p>

11

<p>If you think you’ve got it all worked out, why are you asking here?</p>

12

<p>I didn’t have it worked out until after I posted and started to think about it. Plus, I needed PCHope to point out what an idiot I was before I was able get fully on track.</p>

13

<p>"The 2400/4.0 guy might not have gotten a sniff from Harvard (probably a 50/50 shot), but had he applied to HYPSM across the board, he’d have had a 97% chance of getting into at least one of the schools.</p>

<p>No?"</p>

<p>I and many of my friends were those people with 2380+ and/or 35+ and 3.95+ and multiple 800s on SAT2s and decent-good-great ECs and attended an ELITE High school.</p>

<p>We all applied to HYPSM and none of us got in.</p>

<p>97% chance of getting in???</p>

14

<p>So you know that you stats are similar to those that are rejected from Ivies, right?</p>

<p>Compare yourself to these cohorts, applicants who
are Valedictorians
are Salutatorians
scored 800 on SAT Math
scored 800 on SAT CR
scored 36 on ACT(perfect score)</p>

<p>Brown DENIED rates for those cohorts are:
76% for Vals
85% for Sals
83% for perfect Math SAT
78% for perfect CR SAT
71% for perfect ACT</p>

<p>That said, apply for where you want to go, accept that those schools are reaches for almost everyone,and if you are feeling real frisky don’t pick a safety school . . . although there have to be some schools in between UCLA and Merced :-)</p>

<p>Good luck . . . and don’t ignore the data.</p>

15

<p>Ok, stop playing these statistic games. You are assuming that when a officer looks at your application, they have a 15% chance of liking you. THIS IS FALSE. They likely have higher, or lower. 15% of people get accepted, not meaning that an average applicant gets a 15% chance of being accepted. An average applicant have way less of a chance. </p>

<p>Hopefully you can understand that.</p>