Her kid has NRP designation. I think the odds are pretty high in this case.
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This award qualifies him for free tuition at Fordham, and puts him in the running for Cunniffe award (full ride: tuition, fees, room, board, plus stipend $20,000 spread over 4 years.) Fordham might feel too close to home for a kid from Nassau Co., but having a close-to-home admission + financial safety is not a bad thing to have in your back pocket.
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Thank you so much for this valuable tip (worth over $50K! MUCH appreciated! I’m impressed by the generosity of this community and grateful for all the information everyone has passed along. 
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Fellow Duke alum and interviewer here – go Blue Devils! I think he has a great chance for ED at Tufts and a very good change at the others. I know that a lot of these schools are reaches, but your son’s grades, test scores and ECs are solid. Plus, affirmative action is not yet illegal; his ethnicity is a big hook.
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Curious to hear how your son fared at Tufts, Case, and Binghamton (assuming the last two EAs came out). My D was deferred by Tufts.
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ED II stats are great for Haverford, Middlebury and Vassar. Not keen on Colgate for URM. Check out what the Black students have to say on youtube. Not pretty: 100 Colgate Students of Color - YouTube Colgate is need-aware, so I would not even bother, to be frank.
Syracuse, BC, Hamilton and Skidmore ought to be admits RD, so I wouldn’t waste your chips on them for EDII. They all have money, and some have stopped giving loans, and supplanted them with grant awards. Also, visit if you can.
My D20 (AfAm) loves Hamilton. She’s a junior there now. Keep in mind it’s only 2k students, so it’s smaller than some of the schools on your list. Let me know if you have any questions.
I would avoid Syracuse. We’ve talked to former Black students there that consider it a hostile place for students of color and Jewish students. It was on D20’s list until the national press broke the story of all the problems they’ve had up there for several years. No PWI is a haven for students of color, but Syracuse administration swept things under the rug for years until some students went to the press. After our D20’s tour (in 2019) we talked to a few Black students who said they would go elsewhere if they had the chance to do it all over again.
Here’s an article on it, but a Google search will turn up more.
As an aspect to consider in making a prediction such as this, the admission rate for A² applicants to Hamilton in a recent year appears to have been 7.8%, by available information:
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