<p>I have to say, I mainly agree with your assesment POIH. These days the competition for HYPSMC (and other top schools) is so stiff something like a low GPA/Rank, can knock one out of contention. While it seems like deferring a dream, I would advise if your daughter is so bent on getting into an Ivy or Ivy comparable school she applies ED to a slightly less selective (like Penn, Cornell, Duke, etc.) than apply EA to one of HYPSMC. Chances are your D will be able to find a school in that group slightly below HYPSMC that she really likes (aka if she likes HY apply ED to Columbia, she likes S she applies ED to Duke or Penn, etc.). Frankly, not being ranked in the top 20%, regardless of which school she attended is not good. 99% of Caltech’s students were in the top 10% of their class, all of HY kids were in the top quarter, and MIT only admitted one student out of the top 20% out of 368 applicants with sub 20% rank in 2006’s admission cycle. Despite Stanford having 2% outside of the top quarter, remember that 10% of Stanford’s class are recruited athletes when analyzing the data. While these statistics are only compiled from those hailing from schools that submit rank, they give you a good idea of what the admissions committee at these schools require. In fact, I’d go far enough to say that she has a slimmer chance than most at securing admission at HYPSMC, regardless of the strong test scores/extracurriculars she can bring to bear. I must add one thing though, if one of her dream schools is HYPSMC, and she can’t bare without attending one, I would apply EA to those that offer it-she shouldn’t go through next year wondering if she could/could not have gotten in. However, if she’s like most students, she can easily find one school that will fit her passions and is equally prestigious. In conclusion, have your D research schools that she will be happy with and fulfill all her criteria for selection and send in an ED app there. In the long run, if you have the financial resources and have done due research, such an action is low risk (at the worst she either gets bound to a school she doesn’t like, and transferring is always an option or else she could even be deferred/rejected which opens her a chance at HYPSMC-although probably not that great) Good luck to your D next year with her admissions cycle! Feel free to PM me if you need more clarification/advice.</p>