Have to agree and once again many (not saying this Graves guy) but many so called college “experts” were wrong and are now just trying to save face with the “double dipping”, “summer melt”, “wait for the internationals”, etc to happen and none of it is happening. I have seen it in various facebook groups (not related to colleges my kids attend) that parents are complaining about their kids being told there is no housing available for them, or that they’re on a waitlist and now these kids are forced to find alternative housing, I see it in all 3 of my kids college groups, no more on campus housing at UT, some that signed a housing contract and thought that meant they would get housing, didn’t. UT doesn’t guarantee on campus housing. Cornell, which requires freshman live on campus, doesn’t even have enough housing. Many forced triples, using study lounges for 5 or more students, and also a waiting list for incoming students for housing. They’re expecting a melt alright. But they aren’t going to pull from a waitlist if that melt occurs. Michigan had less upperclassmen decide to stay on campus so freshman are being assigned to dorms usually set aside for them and thrilled because they’re the nicest dorms. Yet, some are also being assigned triples and quads. But they do their housing on a weekly basis and give you 3-5 days to sign your contract so no one knows the final result but it doesn’t look like they let anyone in from their waitlist for this fall (or very few if they did) says plenty. Some though are now saying their kids are complaining about classes they can’t get and suggesting maybe they should stay home a semester but that’s probably just kids blowing hot air. Pomona I think has no housing available for everyone.
I also keep seeing sophomore parents still constantly complaining on what their kids missed and how they want all the experiences that the freshman are now going to have. Every kid missed something. It’s not a contest. This was not a great application year for seniors and I think upcoming seniors will have it even worse than ours with TO again in full force and schools perhaps accepting even less as they re-adjust to re-balance from this year and not have the same issues.
Bottom line, maybe there will be some movement, but I think I don’t see it opening many spots based on the high yields that schools have. Many might be happy to lose the kids as opposed to just take on another body and be bursting at the seams.
The problem with that comment is that some high schools only just now finished within the last week or so, hence transcripts aren’t even ready. My son’s last day of school was May 17, he graduated May 28, and the transcripts were not send out by our high school until a couple weeks ago. So if you factor the amount of time that it takes for a registrar at a high school to get these all out, then that is also part of it. He also said it only just showed up at UM this week that they received it. So the fact that they have 90% of the transcripts is incredible and a sign that there may not be a huge summer melt as many of the 10% can be OOS students who just finished school whereas in Georgia they finish in early May.
I’m in the minority who believes that there was significant double depositing going on, though most of the impaction is due to TO candidates leveling up. If I had to guess, I’d wager the second tier and third tier schools are tending to be quite overenrolled and some may be praying for melt. The top is perhaps vulnerable to melt if some kids don’t complete the FAFSA and all other paperwork on time without the assistance of parents and hs counselors on summer break. Schools with high international counts like highly selective publics also vulnerable. Schools are watching transcript submission, immunization records, housing applications etc. to help predict melt.
Unfortunately I’m in agreement that this probably won’t result in a lot of timely waitlist movement. For us tuition is due 8/1 and S can’t change schools after that. The T25 private schools where he would have taken the offer were seemingly full or at least comfortable enough to completely close the WL in May. One actually created a small VIP wl which was quite humane imo. The T20-50 publics he’s still on are not yet closed and have much higher international counts. But it seems like by the time they give up on those students coming in ‘21, it will be very late summer. My S is unlikely to switch anyway even in July to a big school. So at this point I barely have a portion of one cheek on the waitlist barstool. If there was a surprise avalanche in late July and Notre Dame called and apologized, well then sure.
The experts are VERY quiet. I don’t think even they really know what’s going on yet.
Definitely agree with that although David Graves/UGA who I have followed for several years is chiming in about this stuff where I don’t recall him doing so in the past. Who knows what is going on behind the scenes (freshman dorm selection is over for regular admit students) - have kids missed dorm selection times, not registered for parking or orientation (both optional), not completed the necessary steps to register for classes, not sent transcripts, or maybe all of the above? Graves (so transparent!) said that they have 200 extra admitted students to account for melt and as of a week or 2 ago, 100 had “melted.”. Sounds like they are still reading the tea leaves to see if they need to pull a few more (won’t be many) from the waitlist.
Freshmen move in in less than 45 days and classes start Aug 18th so getting down to the wire a bit at UGA.
Melt is a fascinating phenomenon. I see that it has been just under 3% the last couple years at a private college I’m familiar with.
What drives melt and which types of schools would have the highest melt? One way to increase melt is to be stingy with any summer financial aid requests. A school can also be less accommodating in other areas.
That transparency is fantastic and what every school should be doing. But it looks like they can still lose 100 more before they even go to the waitlist and still aren’t having the “huge” summer melt like so many schools expected to see. But definitely getting down to the wire. I’m still impressed that 90% have submitted final transcripts so they also at least know where they stand as far as that as well and admitting it, unlike so many others! Not sure why it’s so difficult for schools to be up front and honest.
Summer melt is always a thing (5% isn’t unusual), especially for less selective schools with more first gen, students with financial challenges, students who might at the last minute opt for community college, etc. Student circumstances can change in an instant, and some are more vulnerable to those changes.
Graves specifically mentioned international students with visa issues as an issue they are encountering, unique to this time. He also said they are getting typical summer withdrawals for various reasons mentioned, some financial. One recent withdrawal was for an athlete who decided to turn pro .
Agree @srparent15 losing less than 100 kids (the 100 figure was mid June) over the next six weeks doesn’t sound like a lot in a class of 6000. Of course I just checked the Georgia Tech Facebook page and another international student who was granted a deferral to the spring had questions about next steps. There is still a lot going on behind the scenes!
I thought maybe UCLA and Berkeley would create some July waves but recently all of the mid-teir UCs closed their WLs, so now I think that won’t happen despite the potential international melt. The Delta and Gamma variants (potentially adversely impacting housing capacity) and generous state and federal aid for this school year may have something to do with that too.
Just my 2 cents … not at WL bar at all … agree with Delta & Delta Plus variant playing into WL; also Internationally … the vaccination rate is very low due to lack of available vaccines for most of the countries …
Backpacks again. I’m not thrilled with the Borealis due to the plastic board inside and all the other Northface models at the outlet store had the same. Just feels more awkward and heavy than necessary. I might go to the Bean store and check out a new model, the Mountain Classic School backpack. They also have two different cordura versions in the same style, a Mini and a longer one.
Just bought ours at Kohl’s. Once again went with the Adidas Prime on sale for $52 that with $30 in Kohl’s dollars and a 15% coupon was a steal. Bath sheets also were on sale for $10.98 which was cheaper than Costco and BBB. Hopefully they’re really bath sheets and not just towels as I already bought towels but like my kids to also have the big bath sheets.
Also the stock market, housing market, job market, and vaccine rates have all increased a ton since the first of the year. I think a lot of people were hedging, but now are willing to go farther from home and spend more.
One more thing, with the vaccine being readily available and required it’s getting easier to be over enrolled. Forced triples wasn’t possible last year but it can be done if needed. That will give EM people some room to work. Schools with tight dorm space (Cal and UCLA) probably won’t budge though.
Just saw on another thread that Samsonite is having a big sale today (plus save another 2.5% if you use Rakuten.) I was going to stick with our knock off Ikea bags but I may grab one of those tote a ton duffels. Do you guys know if it comes with a long handle as well? It doesn’t say it in the description but I feel like a bag that would get that heavy might have a shoulder strap or at least the hooks to add one. That is one perk of the blue bags, you can turn them around and carry them like a backpack.
This is a good deal. I took the tote-a-tons out of my Amazon order yesterday until closer to move in.
We went to Ikea on Friday (I hate our local-ish Ikea) and bought a few of the zipper-top Frakta bags. I know the tote-a-tons work (we used them moving D19 across the country), but they are very hard to carry. No long handles. I just don’t know if the Frakta bags are durable enough for cross country flights with plane changes and if they’ll stay zipped. I read all the CC threads about them, and it seems they’re best used for vehicle move-ins. I do like that you can backpack them.
Thanks @homerdog! Glad you got to take advantage of the sale.
The LL Bean duffels are great - we have a few mediums and a large but I don’t think we have an XL. You reminded me I do have a rolling one in the attic though, I’ll have to go check it.
I ended up buying one Tote a Ton but spent the extra $5 and got it on Amazon because it is so easy to return to Whole Foods if I don’t keep it. I’m terrible at getting returns done so the extra $5 was worth it this time. I also got two more duffels the same size (an amazon basics and a no name one that came up when I was looking) but they both have the long handles and were $20.
.