What would be the most likely UC school for me?

Alright, I’ll start by saying I did poorly (for my standards) this semester. I had legitimate health issues (getting treated) which screwed me up in school (sophomore year), so I have a 3.3 unweighted. I can’t predict my grades, but let’s just say as I get better, (knock on wood), maybe my grades improve. I would like to go to a UC, preferably Davis.

one of two scenarios:
say I finish with a 3.5 (soph/junio unweighted). What would be a good choice for UCs academically (Berkely, LA, SD, SB, Davis, Irvine, SC, Riverside, or Merced)?

two of two scenarios:
say I finish with a 3.6- would that better my chances for some of the UCs?

Of course, there is more to an application then that, including scores, class difficulty (with the exception of a few, mostly honors and a few AP classes I’m taking/will take), and EC’s (passion for music, but there’s many more EC’s). However, I’m just focusing on GPA for now.

Thanks!

Here is some UC statistical data based on the capped weighted UC GPA and recent 2019 test scores.

UC capped weighted GPA is 10-11th grades for the a-g courses with a maximum of 8 semesters of UC approved Honors, AP, IB or DE courses taken during this time.

Use the Rogerhub calculator to calculate all 3 UC GPA’s which are unweighted, capped weighted and fully weighted.

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

UC’s tend to be very GPA focused so a capped weighted GPA below 4.0, your target schools would be UC Santa Cruz, UC Riverside and UC Merced. It will also be major dependent since more competitive majors (CS/Engineering/Biology) would require higher than average Stats.

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.00-3.39 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 1%
UCLA: 1%
UCSD: 1%
UCSB: 1%
UCI: 1%
UCD: 3%
UCSC: 12%
UCR: 15%
UCM: 45%

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 1%
UCLA: 2%
UCSD: 7%
UCSB: 8%
UCI: 7%
UCD: 14%
UCSC: 33%
UCR: 49%
UCM: 82%

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 10%
UCLA: 9%
UCSD: 34%
UCSB: 38%
UCD: 41%
UCI: 38%
UCSC: 70%
UCR: 84%
UCM: 95%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT composite + language arts
UCB: 28-35
UCLA: 29-35
UCSD: 26-34
UCSB: 26-34
UCD: 24-33
UCI: 24-34
UCSC: 24-32
UCR: 21-30
UCM: 18-26

Thanks- however, this is weighted, correct? If we are used capped weighted, then I already have a 3.67, and hope to get at least a 3.85…

As Gumbymom said, the UCs are very GPA heavy for admissions so UCSC, UCR, or UCM will be your best options if you really want to attend a UC.

Or if you have your heart set on UC Davis, you can always attend a community college, do really well and transfer (that’s what I did).

The other option is that CA has many very good CSUs. Do very well on your standardized tests, keep your grades up and see what happens…

Well the 3.85 to 4.19 Capped weighted GPA data shows UCSC, UCR and UCM as target schools. >50% admit rate so the targets I listed will not change unless you achieve at least a 4.0 capped weighted. A GPA below 4.0 is below the 25th percentile for the rest of the UC’s. Major, test scores, essays and EC’s will all contribute to your chances but you asked about the most likely UC’s.

this will give you a sense for the admission bar at all of the UCs -
https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary

I’d encourage you to explore CSUs, like SDSU, CSULB, perhaps CP Pomona down south and Chico and Sonoma in the North Most students I talk to say they are a more constructive learning environment than the huge, impersonal, fend for yourself UCs.

Tour a few, talk to some students and make your own assessment.