<p>How likely is it that Connecticut’s cutoff will go down from 217 to 216?</p>
<p>Because that would be really awesome.</p>
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<p>The cutoffs from this web site are not official. The score for CA should be 217 and not 218 based on empirical data.
NMS does not publish official cutoffs.</p>
<p>Thanks, J’adoube. </p>
<p>My son asked around at this school but got conflicting info. Apparently Sophomores are not often encouraged to take the PSAT at his school. </p>
<p>This whole board has been an enlightening experience. I had no idea how many schools kids apply to now or how much more competitive it is (or, at least, that’s how it reads to me.)</p>
<p>Okay, so next year the PSAT counts. That gives us more time to figure out what the hell it all means! Thanks again.</p>
<p>Boone:
I think it would be likely (at least, I really hope) that Connecticut’s cut-off score goes down, because to me that curve seems really harsh. Just for comparison, I looked back at a practice PSAT I took a couple weeks before the real PSAT on Oct 17. I also got 2 wrong on the writing, but the score-conversion chart gave me a 76 on that particular test. And since I’ve noticed that a LOT of people have commented on the unusually harsh curve, chances are all the scores this year will be slightly lower, thus changing the cut-offs.
GA</p>
<p>There are two things going on here: how hard the test was, and how good the students were who took it. The College Board tries to make the same score mean the same level of achievement year after year, so that a 70 this year is as good as a 70 last year or the year before. So, assuming they got this calibration right (and they work very hard to do so) an unusually harsh curve this year means the test was unusually easy, so that, say, students who would have gotten two wrong on last year’s test got only one wrong on this year’s test.</p>
<p>But what about average scores going up or down year-to-year? That’s the other component-- how good the test takers are. Clearly, if this year’s test takers are better than last year’s test takers, and the test score means the same as it did the year before, then test scores will go up this year. </p>
<p>In fact, the average score went down a tad this year, so maybe the selection indices will go down as well. </p>
<p>Pugmad, Yeah, amazing, isn’t it? A friend of mine, who has been through this already with his older child, mentioned matter-of-factly that he expected that Fang Jr. would be applying to eight or ten schools. Eight or ten! When I was applying for colleges, back in the Stone Age, everybody applied to two or three.</p>
<p>CF, Yes! I went to a Catholic high school and each student was required to apply to three schools; saftey, match, reach. Do you think your child will apply to 8-12 colleges? That seems daunting.</p>
<p>Obviously I have a lot to learn about how it is done now. A few people have recommended my son check out Brown but having read these boards, I think that is out of the question. My friends who applied to Ivy League schools in the late 80s were outstanding students, no doubt, but they also had no where near the ecs and such that the “what are my chances” students do. </p>
<p>I am grateful I found this resource. It’s wonderful to learn from people who are/have gone through the process currently.</p>
<p>Yeah, I think Fang Jr. will apply to 8-10 schools. He’s in the “lottery” position for some top schools: he has a chance to get in, but he’s certainly not a shoo-in for any of them. Therefore, to maximize his chances to get in a school that he likes, he has to apply to a lot of them.</p>
<p>If Pugmadson has excellent grades and scores, he should look into Brown. Not every Brown student had all those amazing ECs. Think about how Pugmadson can show his individuality on his application. And don’t panic- he’s only a sophomore. There’s plenty of time to panic later.</p>
<p>Hmm. I got my results today. I’m a sophomore.</p>
<p>74-CR
67-Math
66-Writing</p>
<p>207- Composite</p>
<p>I feel like CB’s beeyotch now.</p>
<p>I had not thought of admission in “lottery” terms. Then it does make more sense to apply to more schools.</p>
<p>Living in South Texas, my son goes to school with kids who are bound and determined to get into schools Texas A&M, UT, Baylor and the like. We’re a military family and so not from here. He likes UT because he loves Austin but is more interested in going to college in the Northeast, where I am from. There is very little focus here concerning colleges outside of Texas, which is actually nice for our kid. I feel for the ones who are trying to be third generation Aggies or who wore UT bibs as babies and cannot see themselves anywhere else. The competition is fierce. </p>
<p>No panic yet (although I do love to panic when the time is right!) You are correct that the “what are my chances” boards did alarm me. I do need to step back, let him apply and see where it all goes. This coming summer we’re going to visit some schools up north as we spend most of the summer breaks there anyway. My son is a pretty mellow kid, so I think as long as we keep it low-key, he’ll stay that way (I hope!) </p>
<p>Thanks again for the information. I thought having gone thorugh this, we were ready to help him. Times have changed, that’s is for sure.</p>
<p>chillaxingtime, just to clairify, the numbers listed in the table on page 21 represent the total number of students that scored your score and all the students that scored better than you. the way i calculated the results was through statistical analysis on the data from this years mean data for the scores and the standard deviation. I performed a normal probability plot to find the percentiles (accurate to many decimal places) and then multiplied that by the total number of students…thats why its “who scored as high or higher”</p>
<p>it’s so bad here in dc.. the cut off is gonna be like 225 something..
cr: -4= 71
math: -1 ( grid in- didn’t answer) =75
w: -4=66</p>
<p>INdex: 212</p>
<p>wat a curve…</p>
<p>Bleh! </p>
<p>Cr - 80 - 0
M - 61 - I don’t even know how many.
W - 75 -1</p>
<p>= 216 Index in PA.</p>
<p>I’m still trying to figure out what happened on the math section. Rather happy with the others.</p>
<p>I’ve seen (from different sources) that the index for NMSF this year (2008 grads) is either 214 or 217 in PA, so hopefully, it’s the former. </p>
<p>Missing SF by a single point would be a not-so-great feeling :(</p>
<p>I called National Merit directly about NMSF cutoff for PA this year (2006 PSAT results for 2008 grads), and they told me the cutoff was 214. I scored a 219, so I’m hoping it does not jump by more than 5 points!</p>
<p>Ah! Fantastic news! :)</p>
<p>I think you’ll be okay with a 219 (congratulations by the way), since it didn’t seem like any went up by that much in previous years. </p>
<p>Hoping for both of us it stays put!</p>
<p>Although the report that I received in the mail tells me that my index score of 219 is at the 99th percentile, it does not tell me the corresponding state percentile. Is there any way of finding that out?</p>
<p>No, not until next fall when you’re either commended/semifinalist or not.</p>
<p>According to the score report i recieved in the mail, the online score reports have state percentiles, so you should be able to find out by the end of the week.</p>
<p>The online report gives state percentiles for the individual sections (math, reading, and writing), but it does not give the state percentile for the composite index. The state percentile for the composite index is not just the average of the 3 individual sections (at least as far as I understand it). </p>
<p>When the online scores were briefly posted last week (before that were taken down), I saw that my state percentiles for reading (71) and math (68)were well below the 99th percentile (something like 95 and 96 percentile), but my writing score of 80 was at the 99th percentile for my state ¶. However, my composite index of 219 is at the 99th percentile nationally. Will that automatically translate to the 99th percentile on the state-wide level? lat year’s cutoff for PA was 214.</p>
<p>I’m scared. I got 218; Texas cut off 2007 was 215 and 2006 was 217. I can’t believe I did worst in Math (I always get 80 or 800 on SAT practice) and I did my best in CR (I always get 600-720 on SAT practice…). I’m just hoping the cutoff doesn’t increase so much!</p>
<p>Thank you for the clarification, Raneff :)</p>