Brown has ED; Yale has EA–Yale will not yield 790 of the 800 EA.
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Fine, that probably means 200 more acceptances, so 3.2%. My point is at those levels it’s really a crapshoot and no one should feel bad or less for not getting accepted.
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Has your student been waitlisted or denied anywhere? I wonder if some students get in almost everywhere and how often someone gets into two or three ivies.
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I agree. MIT is tough. And Northeastern at 7 percent is also hard to predict. It is hard to imagine how UCs handle over 100k apps without even considering test scores.
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Assuming the following yield numbers are correct, there are very few who are admitted to more than one of the T5 for yield, HYPSM.
From prepscholar.com:
Let’s look at a chart of the yield for all students enrolling in Ivy League-caliber universities for Fall 2021.
| School | % Admitted | # Admitted | # Attending | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | 3.9% | 2,190 | 2,126 | 97.1% |
| Harvard | 4.0% | 2,320 | 1,968 | 84.8% |
| Columbia | 3.9% | 2,358 | 1,569 | 66.5% |
| Princeton | 4.4% | 1,647 | 1,345 | 81.7% |
| Yale | 4.6% | 2,169 | 1,789 | 82.5% |
| UChicago* | 6.2% | 2,133 | 1,457 | 68.3% |
| Caltech* | 6.7% | 536 | 244 | 45.5% |
| MIT | 4.1% | 1,365 | 1,184 | 86.7% |
| Brown | 5.4% | 2,537 | 1,724 | 68% |
| Duke | 5.8% | 2,854 | 1,752 | 61.4% |
| UPenn | 5.9% | 3,304 | 2,321 | 70.2% |
| Dartmouth | 6.2% | 1,749 | 1,229 | 70.3% |
| Northwestern | 6.8% | 3,239 | 2,100 | 64.8% |
| Vanderbilt | 6.7% | 3,162 | – | – |
| Johns Hopkins* | 7.1% | 1,922 | 1,300 | 67.6% |
| Cornell | 8.7% | 5,836 | 3,750 | 64.3% |
| Average (Overall) | 5.7% | 2,458 | 1,696 | 72% |
| Average (Ivies) | 5.4% | 2,740 | 1,962 | 73.5% |
*2021 data not yet available; 2020 data used instead
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Can you show us the code by chance?
Thank you. This was informative. I loved my Yale interviewer; thank you for the time and effort you put in doing these for Yale Admissions.
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Unfortunately they are not (PrepScholar’s data seems to not match CDS records), but agree with your overall point.
Taking Stanford as an example - from their 2021 CDS: 1,757 enrolled (not 2,126) for a yield rate of roughly 80%
Similarly, based on Harvard’s 2021 CDS 2,015 were admitted and 1,407 enrolled. Yield roughly 70%.
Haven’t checked the rest.
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Is the withdraw button still there for everyone?
yes
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Thats when they take people out of waitlist right?
Would be interesting to segregate ED/RD yields, assuming 100 pct for ED.
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If they can figure out the correct yield, no one should come off the waitlist.
The numbers that get off waitlist at the Ivies/S/M are largely rounding errors around their very accurate yield predictions. I thinking that is less the case for some of the prívate non-Ivies, which tend to compete on yield with the Ivies by accepting a majority of the class in ED, and tend to lose to the Ivies in attracting offerees (run a few head to heads in parchment) and consequently need to tap the waitlist.
Thank you, @DadOfJerseyGirl! The 97% certainly seemed suspect. Great idea to compare to the CDC.
If you are running numbers, I would not be so concerned with historical yield. I would look at the range of recent year acceptances (it’s usually pretty consistent, although last year’s for many colleges may have been on the low side because of Covid deferrals from the prior year) subtract the EA/ED acceptances to get a range for the numerator (spots left). For the denominator, it is the total applicants less EA/ED applicants plus EA/ED applicants deferred.
Unfortunately, other than MIT I haven’t seen any other school provide the breakdown between EA/D and RD. Or maybe I don’t know where to look.
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For Yale:
Total applicants = 50,022 Record number of prospective first-years apply to Yale - Yale Daily News.
Early Action Applicants = 7,313
EA admits = 881 Yale admits 800 early action applicants, matches 81 QuestBridge finalists | YaleNews
Deferred = 31% or 2,259
Historically Yale has admitted 2,200-2,300± students a year in recent years:
So approximately 1,300 to 1,400 spots left for about 45,000 “live” applications, so about a 3% ± RD admissions rate.
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Thanks @BKSquared and @Elpsaa